Flattening the curve

Measures such as hand washing, social distancing, and the use of face masks help reduce and delay the peak number of active cases, thereby allowing more time for health care systems to prepare and respond more effectively to increased patient load.[1] The time gained by "flattening the curve" can be used to "raise the line"—that is, to increase health care capacity in order to better meet surging demand.[2]
Without containment measures—such as social distancing, vaccination, and the use of face masks—pathogens can spread exponentially.[3] Early implementation of such interventions can reduce and delay the peak number of active cases, helping to protect a larger proportion of the population. This effect is often visualized through epidemic curves that demonstrate the benefits of early containment.

Flattening the curve is a public health strategy used to slow down the spread of an infectious disease in order to prevent overwhelming health care systems. The curve being flattened refers to the epidemic curve, a visual representation of the number of infected people needing health care over time. During an epidemic, health care systems can become overwhelmed when the number of people infected exceeds their capacity to provide adequate care. Flattening the curve reduces the peak number of infected people requiring care at any one time, helping ensure that the healthcare system remains within its capacity to treat patients. This strategy gained widespread attention during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic as governments sought to manage the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

The strategy relies on mitigation measures such as hand washing, use of face masks, and social distancing. A related concept is "raising the line", which involves increasing health care capacity[4] – for example, by expanding the availability of intensive care unit (ICU) beds and ventilators.[2] Flattening the curve and raising the line are complementary strategies that work together to reduce mortality and ensure the health care system can continue providing care.

Flattening the curve is distinct from "zero-COVID" strategies, which aim to eliminate transmission entirely. Instead, flattening the curve tolerates low levels of community transmission while aiming to minimize disruption and protect vulnerable populations.[5][6] These strategies may be pursued sequentially or simultaneously during different phases of an epidemic, particularly as population-level immunity is acquired through infection or vaccination.[7]

  1. ^ Wiles, Siouxsie (9 March 2020). "The three phases of Covid-19—and how we can make it manageable". The Spinoff. Morningside, Auckland, New Zealand. Archived from the original on 27 March 2020. Retrieved 9 March 2020.
  2. ^ a b Cite error: The named reference :3 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  3. ^ Maier, Benjamin F.; Brockmann, Dirk (15 May 2020). "Effective containment explains subexponential growth in recent confirmed COVID-19 cases in China". Science. 368 (6492): 742–746. Bibcode:2020Sci...368..742M. doi:10.1126/science.abb4557. PMC 7164388. PMID 32269067. ("...initial exponential growth expected for an unconstrained outbreak.")
  4. ^ Beating Coronavirus: Flattening the Curve, Raising the Line (YouTube video). Retrieved 12 April 2020.
  5. ^ Oliu-Barton, Miquel; Pradelski, Bary S R; Aghion, Philippe; Artus, Patrick; Kickbusch, Ilona; Lazarus, Jeffrey V; Sridhar, Devi; Vanderslott, Samantha (28 April 2021). "SARS-CoV-2 elimination, not mitigation, creates best outcomes for health, the economy, and civil liberties". The Lancet. 397 (10291): 2234–2236. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00978-8. PMC 8081398. PMID 33932328.
  6. ^ Li, Zhongjie; Chen, Qiulan; Feng, Luzhao; Rodewald, Lance; Xia, Yinyin; Yu, Hailiang; Zhang, Ruochen; An, Zhijie; Yin, Wenwu; Chen, Wei; Qin, Ying; Peng, Zhibin; Zhang, Ting; Ni, Daxin; Cui, Jinzhao; Wang, Qing; Yang, Xiaokun; Zhang, Muli; Ren, Xiang; Wu, Dan; Sun, Xiaojin; Li, Yuanqiu; Zhou, Lei; Qi, Xiaopeng; Song, Tie; Gao, George F; Feng, Zijian (4 June 2020). "Active case finding with case management: the key to tackling the COVID-19 pandemic". The Lancet. 396 (10243): 63–70. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31278-2. PMC 7272157. PMID 32505220.
  7. ^ Bhopal, Raj S (9 September 2020). "To achieve "zero covid" we need to include the controlled, careful acquisition of population (herd) immunity". BMJ. 370: m3487. doi:10.1136/bmj.m3487. eISSN 1756-1833. hdl:20.500.11820/59628557-672e-47bb-b490-9c9965179a27. PMID 32907816. S2CID 221538577.
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